West Pacific/2015/08W/Archive/12
Public advisory TROPICAL STORM KUJIRA PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 12 WIKI-HURRICANES FORECASTING CENTER 12:00 AM JST WED JUN 24 2015 ... KUJIRA CONTINUES TO BATTLE SHEAR ... SUMMARY OF 12:00 AM JST...15:00 UTC...INFORMATION ------------------------------ LOCATION... 20.1N 107.5E ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SE OF HAI PHONG, VIETNAM MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 KT...45 MPH...60 KM/H MINIMUM BAROMETRIC PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INHG PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW AT 5 KT...6 MPH...9 KM/H DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 12:00 am JST, the center of Tropical Storm Kujira was located near 20.1N, 107.5E, or about 70 miles (115 kilometers) southeast of Hai Phong, Vietnam. Maximum sustained winds were 35 knots (40 mph, 65 km/h), with higher gusts. The minimum barometric pressure was 992 mb (hPa; 29.30 inHg), and the system was moving west-northwest at 5 knots (6 mph, 9 km/h). NEXT ADVISORY ------------------------------ Next complete advisory at 06:00 am JST. $$ Forecaster TheAustinMan Discussion TROPICAL STORM KUJIRA PUBLIC DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 WIKI-HURRICANES FORECASTING CENTER 12:00 AM JST WED JUN 24 2015 The center of Kujira's circulation remains difficult to properly locate, despite it most likely being well-defined. For much of the day the center of ciruclation has been hidden under a thick but inconclusive convection canopy over the Gulf of Tonkin, and scatterometers have been avoiding Kujira like the plague. A WindSAT pass from 11z depicted such a large array of ambiguous wind vectors that the data from that pass (which includes 50 knot uncontaminated winds!) will be disregarded. However, a SSMI pass from 1232z indicated that Kujira was located near Bach Long Vi Island, which forms the basis of this advisory's center fix. Kujira has been located under the duress of 30-40 knot wind shear, which has helped to keep most of the convection to the circulation's southwest. Although the Kujira has been able to keep the convection over the center for much of the day, within the last few hours satellite imagery has shown that the primary convective mass is once again peeling away from the circulation, which is not unanticipated. Without the aid of useful scatteromter data, we once again turn to subjective intensity estimates to provide some guidance as to what Kujira's intensity is. CIMSS-ADT suggests a 50 knot intensity, but given that the storm is being sheared with the center outside the main convective mass, the product's "uniform CDO" parameter would suggest that the CIMSS-ADT intensity is a bit too high. On the other hand, SAB has not been able to establish an intensity greater than 35 knots throughout Kujira's lifetime, which may suggest that it has been underestimating Kujira's intensity given the storm's low pressures. For this advisory, due to the shearing of the convective mass over the past few hours and taking the insistence of SAB into accout, the intensity for this advisory has been set at 40 knots. Kujira is not expected to strengthen further as its track gives Kujira less than a day over water. The uncertainty of Kujira's position makes identifying the precise present motion difficult, but taking the entire circulation into account, Kujira is clearly still tracking west or west-northwestward, which should bring Kujira onshore northern Vietnam in around 12 hours. As there is little evidence that Kujira will take a more northerly track, the present motion is retained, and inland decay will likely dissipate Kujira over northern Vietnam. INIT 23/1500Z 20.1N 107.5E 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 20.6N 106.7W 40 KT 45 MPH ... MOVING ONSHORE 24H 24/1200Z 21.0N 106.3E 30 KT 35 MPH ... INLAND 36H 25/0000Z 21.6N 106.0E 15 KT 20 MPH ... REMNANT LOW 48H 25/1200Z ... DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster TheAustinMan